China’s shadow lending system could be trying its hand at sub-prime banking. And when 民間二胎, it will likely be precisely what George Soros has been warning about since January when he announced he was shorting the regional currency, the renmimbi.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said on the weekend that Shanghai banks cannot cooperating with six mortgage brokers for around one month for violating lending policies. Branches of seven commercial banks admitted on Monday that they will suspend mortgage lending for clients brokered by those six firms for a couple of months so as to clamp on “gray-market” home loans, the Shanghai office in the Commission said.

It’s unclear exactly what China means from the “gray market”, but it does seem like mortgage brokers as well as their partner banks are working with time to have investors and first-timers in a home as China’s economy slows.

Should this be happening in Shanghai, imagine the interior provinces where you will discover a housing glut plus they tend to be more influenced by real estate business for revenue.

The central and western provinces have already been hit hard by the slowdown from the whole economy and consequently, existing property supply may be a hard sell, Macquarie Capital analysts led by Ian Roper wrote in the report covered by Bloomberg on Monday. Another wave newest housing construction won’t help to resolve the oversupply issue in these regions, and mortgage lenders can be using some “ancient Chinese secrets” to either unload those to buyers or fund them a tad bit more creatively.

To many observers, this looks a little excessive like precisely what the seeds of the housing and economic crisis all rolled into one.

The creative products that wiped out Usa housing in 2008 — known as mortgaged backed securities and collateralized debt obligations bound to sub-prime mortgages — was actually a massive, trillion dollar market. That’s untrue in China. But that mortgage backed securities industry is growing. As is China’s debt market. China’s debt doesn’t pay a hell of any lot, so some investors searching for a bigger bang could go downstream and look for themselves in uncharted Chinese waters with derivative products full of unsavory property obligations.

Chinese People securitization market took off a year ago and is now approaching $100 billion. It is actually Asia’s biggest, outpacing Japan by three to a single.

Leading the drive are big state-owned banks such as the ones in Shanghai who have temporarily turn off usage of their loans from questionable mortgage firms. Others within the derivatives business include mid-sized financial firms seeking to package loans into collateralized loan obligations (CLO), that are better than CDOs insofar since they are not pools of independent mortgages. However, CLOs can include loans to housing developers dependent on those independent mortgages.

China’s housing bubble differs in comparison to the U.S. because — currently — there has been no foreclosure crisis along with the derivatives market that feeds off home mortgages is small. Moreover, China home buyers are required to make large down payments. What led to the sub-prime housing industry inside the Usa was the practice by mortgage brokers to approve applications of those people who had no money to set down on the home. China avoids that, on paper, simply because of its deposit requirement.

Precisely what is not clear is the thing that real estate developers are sticking with that policy, and who is not. And then in the instance where that type of debt gets packed in to a derivative product, then China’s credit is a concern.

The marketplace for asset backed securities in China has expanded thanks to a new issuance system. Further healthy growth and development of financial derivatives will help pull a large sum out of your country’s notoriously opaque shadow banking sector and set it back on banks’ books, giving China more transparency.

But Shanghai’s crackdown this weekend shows that authorities are keeping a detailed eye on mortgage loan brokers even if the “gray market” is not really necessarily associated with derivatives.

Kingsley Ong, somebody at law office Eversheds International who helped draft China’s asset-backed security laws in 2007, called the potential for securitization in China “nearly unlimited”.

The lack of industry experience and widespread failure to disclose financial information have raised questions about its ultimate effect on the broader economy.

All of this “eerily resembles what actually transpired in the financial disaster from the United states in 2007-08, that has been similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said throughout a meeting in the Asia Society in New York City on April 20. “The majority of the money that banks are supplying is necessary to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive,” he was quoted saying.

China’s securitization market took shape in April of 2005 but was suspended during 2009 due to Usa housing crisis and its link with the derivatives market China is presently building. Regulators lifted the ban on mortgage backed securities in May 2012, though they outlawed re-securitization products and synthetic CDOs, which are CDOs of CDOs, the uicide squeeze that helped kill a large number of American banks including Lehman and Bear Stearns.

China Banking Regulatory Commission is opening the CDO market to domestic and international investors. Because of the size and unruliness of China’s market, this really is fraught with problems from the get-go. It’s a very small market, so short sellers like Soros can’t blame it on any implosion of China’s overall economy. Only around 50 billion yuan continues to be granted with the regulators for CDO trading. The shape and potential only compares with all the Usa

CDOs can help China whittle back debts at and permit some banks move a number of its portfolio risk outside the domestic financial system and into the hands of emerging market fixed income fund managers. The Financial Times estimated in March that China has around 1.27 trillion yuan ($194 billion) in uncollaterized debt, however they claim that analysts estimate the real number being frequently higher. That is certainly at least partially as a result of property developers, who may have been busy developing “ghost cities” for more than a decade. The CDO market will enable banks to hold underwriting home loans to job-creating construction firms and pass them to foreign investors who happen to be currently being sold on the narrative that Chinese fixed income is an important part of any global, diversified portfolio.

The Shanghai branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was forced by city bank authorities to shut down its clients business with seven mortgage brokers. The problem is, the ruling stands for just two months. (Photo by LAURENT FIEVET/AFP/Getty Images)

This weekend’s decision by Shanghai bank regulators also shows how much potential there is certainly for stench in the system.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said it made its decision Saturday after “careful inspection of the mortgage business at commercial bank outlets, and certain misconduct that dexrpky37 been discovered.”

The misconduct includes “transferring home loans to a 3rd party — neither seller nor buyer from the property — who later wired the cash to a property agency, as well as down payments raised through property agencies.”

The six property firms include 房屋二胎; Shanghai Pacific Rehouse Service and Shanghai Hanyu Property Consultancy.

Nobody knows those names. However the seven bank outlets that got scolded Saturday include Industrial and Commercial Bank of Chinanull, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, your budget of Communications, SPD Bank and HSBC Shanghai.

The measures happened per month right after a joint notice from your Commission’s Shanghai office and the local branch in the People’s Bank of China vows to boost efforts to control home mortgage operations, reduce systematic risks for the banks and develop the real estate debt market.